Weekly Market Commentary October 13th to October 17th 2025

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has entered its 17th day, putting key economic announcements on hold and shifting the market’s focus. With no immediate end in sight, the funding lapse is now the third-longest in modern history, after the 1995–1996 and 2018–2019 shutdowns. This has postponed the release of official economic indicators, including this week’s Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures. In the absence of macroeconomic data, attention has turned to the latest round of Q3 earnings reports and renewed concerns over credit turmoil in regional banking sector.

Third-quarter earnings have begun positively, with 12% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far, primarily from the financial sector. The blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 8.5%. This puts the index on a path toward its ninth straight quarter of earnings growth.

A sudden selloff among regional banks raised new anxieties on Wall Street, quickly ending the optimism that followed a strong quarter for big money center banks like J.P. Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. The turbulence began when regional bank Zions reported it had lost nearly all of a $60 million loan after uncovering misrepresentations by the borrower. The rapid market reaction has reignited concerns reminiscent of the 2023 crisis that engulfed Silicon Valley and First Republic.

Despite a week of heightened volatility, all major indices ended higher. The S&P 500 rose 1.7% to close at 6,664, the Nasdaq climbed 2.1% to 22,680, and the Dow finished the week at 46,190. Meanwhile, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 0.04%, closing at 4.01%.

Assuming the end of the government shutdown, important economic releases next week include Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Existing and New Home Sales.