Weekly Market Commentary June 23rd to June 27th 2025
With an abundance of economic data releases last week, several stood out including the S&P Manufacturing and Services surveys, final reading for 1Q25 GDP, and PCE inflation for May.
The surveys for the S&P Services and Manufacturing Indexes were the first noteworthy data for the week and both slightly beat expectations. The S&P Services PMI was 53.1, a 2-month low but still expanding while the S&P Manufacturing surveys posted a 52.0, flat from the prior month but still in expansionary territory.
Final reading for 1Q25 GDP was revised lower than estimate to -0.5% for the first quarter and a three-year low. Personal consumption was the primary detractor being revised down to 0.5% from 1.2%, which was the weakest since 2Q20 and more evidence that the consumer has slowed their pace of spending thus far this year.
Closing out the week was the Federal Reserves preferred inflation measure Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for May. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy increased 2.7% from a year ago, and above the FOMC 2% target.
The S&P 500 continued its positive momentum into the week, driven by a cease fire announcement between Israel and Iran, as well advances in the U.S. and China trade discussion. The Index closed the week at 6,173 and experienced a 3.5% increase for the week bringing the YTD gain to 4.9%.
U.S. Treasury yields declined during the week after upward pressure the past few weeks with the 10-Year finishing the week at 4.27% and 2- year Treasury at 3.73%.
This upcoming week important economic releases include both the ISM Services and Manufacturing PMI and most importantly the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report.
