Weekly Market Commentary July 21st to July 25th 2025
This past week featured several noteworthy economic releases.
On the housing front, Existing Home Sales declined by 2.7% in June to 3.93 million units, flat from a year ago. Inventory is up 15.9% from this time last year while the median price reached a record high of $435,300. New Home Sales increased by 0.6% to an annually adjusted rate of 627k but are down 6.6% on a Y-o-Y basis. The month’s supply of new homes increased to 9.8 months and the highest level since September 2022. The median price of a new home was $401,800, down 4.9% from May and 2.9% from a year ago.
The preliminary surveys for the S&P Services and Manufacturing Indexes for July were mixed with manufacturing missing the estimate and services exceeding. Services PMI was 55.2, a seven-month high, while the S&P Manufacturing survey posted a 49.5, contracting for the first time since December and a seven-month low.
Preliminary Core Durable Goods (ex-transportation) for June increased by 0.2%, following an upwardly revised gain of 0.6% in May. Capital Orders ex-aircraft and defense, a proxy for business equipment investment missed estimates, declining 0.7%, the largest monthly decline since April, suggesting businesses remain somewhat hesitant to spend due to tariff and trade uncertainty.
Equity markets continued their positive momentum reaching new all-time highs. The S&P 500 opened the week at 6,296 and closed at 6,388, up 1.5% for the week and now up 8.6% YTD. U.S. Treasury yields ticked up slightly from last week, with the 2-Year Treasury yield finishing at 3.92%, and the 10-Year closing at 4.38%.
This upcoming week will be full of important releases, including the first reading of second quarter GDP, the FOMC rate decision, PCE inflation, the ISM manufacturing report and July’s non-farm payroll report.
