Weekly Market Commentary August 4th to August 8th 2025
This past week’s economic releases included Services data, Initial Jobless Claims, and Consumer Credit.
The release of the ISM Services Index and S&P Global US Services PMI showed services activity was stable in July. The surveys showed service activity is still growing, albeit less than expected. Production growth slowed as New Orders declined, and employment contracted for the second straight month. Firms are facing rising costs and softening demand, as well as the fading impact of tariff-driven purchasing from months prior.
Initial Jobless Claims increased slightly on the week to 226,000 new claims. The number is in line with multi-year averages, and the data suggest that layoffs are concentrated in a few sectors, mainly the government sector. The main concern is the continued uptrend in Continuing Claims which is now nearing 2 million, the highest since COVID and above the 2019 average.
Consumer credit rose by $7.4 billion in the month of June at an annual rate of $5.06 trillion. The increase was driven by nonrevolving credit such as auto and student loans, while revolving credit such as credit cards declined $1.1 billion.
The equity markets bounced back after pulling back the week prior. The S&P 500 finished the week 2.4% higher to 6,389, the Nasdaq 3.9% higher to 21,450, and the Dow Jones Industrials 1.3% higher to 44,175. U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly with the 2-Year Treasury climbing 8bps to 3.76% and the 10-Year Treasury climbing 7bps to 4.28%.
This upcoming week we will receive data on inflation, imports and exports, and Retail Sales.
