Weekly Market Commentary September 8th to September 12th 2025
Recent labor and inflation data, reported during the Federal Reserve’s blackout period (September 6–18), have solidified market expectations for a 25- basis point interest rate cut. This move is anticipated to be announced by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the upcoming meeting on September 17th.
This week’s news included a jaw-dropping jobs revision as well as Weekly Jobless Claims. The recent criticism of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) accuracy appears to be justified. The record-breaking downward revision of 911,000 jobs created between April 2024 and March 2025 reveals a significantly weaker job market than initially reported, raising concerns about the economy’s true health. Weekly Jobless Claims echoed that weakness hitting 263k, its highest level since October 2021.
Inflation reports delivered a mixed bag for markets. The Producer Price Index provided a positive surprise, falling by 0.1% in August, led by a decrease in services prices, and bringing its yearly growth to 2.6%. This was followed by a less encouraging Consumer Price Index report, which came in at a higher-than-forecasted 2.9% year-over-year. The overall inflation picture, however, took a backseat to the aforementioned labor market news.
The latest consumer data indicates rising stress among consumers. Consumer credit saw a significant increase, ballooning to $16.0 billion from $7.4 billion. This was accompanied by a notable drop in consumer sentiment, with the University of Michigan Survey falling to 55.4, substantially below the 58 estimate.
Equity markets recorded another strong week, with major indices closing at or near record highs. The S&P 500 finished the week at 6,584, a 1.6% increase. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also posted significant gains, ending at 45,864 while the Nasdaq finished the week up 2.0% at 22,141. In fixed-income markets, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note fell to 4.05%. In contrast, the yield on the 2-Year Treasury Note edged higher to 3.56%.
Next week’s important economic releases include Retail Sales, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and Housing Starts.
