Weekly Market Commentary April 21st to April 25th 2025
Despite minimal economic and tariff developments, the stock market bounced back as investors became more optimistic on potential tariff deals and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s job security and ultimately, the Fed’s independence.
During the week, macroeconomic announcements included more housing data, including both Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales. These figures painted a very different picture of the spring market. Existing Home Sales slumped 5.9%, the largest month-to-month decline since November 2022. The trend of slowing activity has continued in 2025, as homeowners feel “rate-locked”. 2024 was the slowest Existing Home Sales since 1995.
New Home Sales data jumped to an annualized rate of 724k, an increase of 6% year-over-year as demand for new homes remains high. This follows an impressive February number despite commentary from insiders insisting that the housing industry remains on edge over the recent tariffs and market volatility.
The preliminary reading of the S&P Manufacturing PMI showed slight expansion for the month at 50.7 as business activity grew, but optimism around the sector declined. Pricing pressures remain unabated driven by tariffs, supply chain issues and a weaker exchange rate. S&P Global Services PMI decelerated to 51.4 from 54.4, as New Orders fell sharply during the month.
The equity markets rebounded sharply during the week. The S&P 500 increased 4.6% to 5,525, the Nasdaq rebounded 6.7% to 17,383, and the Dow Jones Industrials recaptured 2.5% of recent losses, finishing at 40,113. Along the yield curve, the 10-Year was down 7bps to 4.26%.
Next week the important economic releases include the first reading of first quarter GDP, Personal Consumption Expenditures data and the Unemployment report.
