Weekly Market Commentary October 21st to October 25th 2024
We had a light week for economic data with a series of housing statistics the primary releases.
On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors® released Existing Home Sales for September, which declined 1% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million, down 3.5% from a year ago and the lowest rate since October 2010. Three out of the four regions declined except for the West. Housing inventory increased 1.5% from August and 23% from a year ago to 1.39 million units available, which is 4.3 months of supply at the current pace, but still below historical averages. Increasing inventory is a welcome sign as it should help to aid affordability in addition to lower mortgage rates, as the median price increased to $404,500, up 3% from a year ago and the highest for any September on record.
New Home Sales were released by the Census Bureau, increasing by 4.1% over the previous month to an annual rate of 738k and 6.3% above the year-ago rate. Inventory of new homes is in better shape than existing, standing at 7.6 months of supply.
Durable Goods orders declined for a second consecutive month by 0.8% in September. Capital goods ex aircraft and defense, which is a proxy for business investment, increased by 0.5% in September, the strongest pace in three months.
Closing out the week was the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, which was revised up to 70.5, from 68.9 and a six-month high.
The S&P 500 opened the week after an all-time high of 5,864, and declined through midweek, but closed with back-to-back gains at 5,808, down 1% for the week. In the U.S. Treasury market, rates increased throughout the week as markets priced in concerns of debt levels and the upcoming election. The 2-Year U.S. Treasury declined by 0.16 percent to 4.10%, which is the highest level since August, while the 10-Year closed at 4.23%, down 0.15 percent from the prior week and the highest level since July.
Key consumer economic releases next week include first reading of third-quarter GDP, personal spending and PCE inflation.
