Weekly Market Commentary November 3rd to November 7th 2025
Despite a generally positive corporate earnings season, the U.S. stock market experienced its most significant weekly decline since April. Renewed volatility was spurred by the longest government shutdown in U.S. history and concerns over the high valuations of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.
The current U.S. government shutdown now is the longest in history, lasting 38 days as of this writing. Talks have hit a stalemate between Republicans and Democrats over budget negotiations, specifically related to healthcare funding. Economists estimate that between $7 billion to $14 billion will be permanently lost, with a higher estimate occurring if the government shutdown were to last until Thanksgiving.
In the absence of official government data, private data sources have suggested a softening labor market, with job cuts in October reaching their highest level for that month in over two decades. U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, a 175% increase from the same period a year ago and the highest total since 2003. This makes 2025 the worst year for layoffs since 2009.
The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI was 48.7% in October, as New Orders, Production, and Employment remained in contractionary territory.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was on track for its worst week since April, with all three major indices ending the week in the red. Major AI players like Nvidia, Oracle, and Palantir all experienced significant weekly declines, leading to a broad risk-off sentiment in the market. The S&P 500 ended the week at 6,729, down -1.6%, the Nasdaq finished at 23,004 falling 3.0% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the week at 46,987.
The Consumer Price Index was originally scheduled to be released next week but is unlikely as data has not been collected during the month of October.
