Weekly Market Commentary March 23rd to March 27th 2026

Following up a busy week of economic releases, as well as the FOMC meeting for March, economic data for this week was overshadowed by rising oil prices as the war in Iran continues, increasing inflationary concerns.

The ADP Employment Change for the period ending March 7, 2026 showed a 4-week average of 10k per week, slightly above the estimate and little changed from the previous period. Additional employment data in the form of initial jobless claims rose slightly to 210k, slightly below forecast. Continuing claims declined to 1.8 million, a 2-year low. Overall, the data indicates a resilient labor market.

S&P released its U.S. Composite PMI for March registering a 51.4, slightly below the previous month and estimate. While still in expansion it marked an 11-month low and signals slower growth that was mostly attributed to deceleration in the service sector.

The equity markets suffered their fifth consecutive down week, the longest streak in almost four years, as surging oil prices raised uncertainty surrounding inflation and interest rates. The S&P 500 fell 2.1% to 6,368 during the week. U.S. Treasury yields remained volatile ending the week mostly unchanged, with the 2-Year 1bp higher to 3.90% and the 10-Year 4bps higher to 4.43%.

Next week several FOMC governors will speak, including Chairman Powell, as well as the always important non-farm payroll report and ISM manufacturing reports for March.