Weekly Market Commentary February 9th to February 13th 2026

It was a busy week for economic releases as the federal government continued to play catchup from the budget stalemate and the fall shutdown. The week started with the delayed December Retail Sales report and the results were disappointing, coming in flat (0%). Blame was placed on the loss of federal government workers’ pay and SNAP benefits, along with weather-impacted auto sales. January’s data should have been released by this week too, but we haven’t gotten an indication of when that will be available.

Next up came the January employment report and the results were mixed. The +130,000 change in Nonfarm Payrolls was much more than expected (+70,000) and the highest since December of 2024, but the downward revisions to prior months meant that only 15,000 jobs per month on average were created in all of 2025. For perspective, the monthly average for 2024 was 122,000 and for 2023 it was 210,000! The Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.30% from 4.40%, but Average Hourly Earnings also fell from 3.80% to 3.70%. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are also creeping up and came in at 227,000.

For some good news on the inflation front, consumer prices fell in the month of January with the CPI coming in at 2.40% when 2.50% was expected and 2.70% came in for December. This positive news wasn’t enough to boost the odds of a March interest rate cut by the Fed, with the likelihood holding steady at around 10%. Finally, Existing Home Sales for January were 5.80% lower due to the seasonal volatility in the housing market.

In the markets, equities all finished slightly down for the week. The S&P 500 closed at 6,836, or down 1.38%; the Dow Jones Industrials closed at 49,501, or down 1.23%; and the NASDAQ lost 2.10%, closing at 22,547. In fixed income, U.S. Treasuries rallied across the curve with the 10-year closing at 4.05%.

Next week will provide us with fourth quarter GDP, Personal Consumption Expenditures for December, the S&P Services/Manufacturing PMI’s, Housing Starts, Building Permits, and New Home Sales.