Weekly Market Commentary February 2nd to February 6th 2026

The federal government experienced another (partial) shutdown, although it was brief. As a result, the release of the Employment Report, which was expected to offer early insight into economic conditions at the start of 2026, was delayed. In the meantime, other labor market indicators were available, including the ADP Employment Report, U.S. Job Openings and Initial Jobless Claims. The ADP report showed a modest increase of 22,000 jobs, led by strong gains in the health care sector with 74,000 new positions.

U.S. Job Openings declined to their lowest level in more than five years in December, falling by 386,000 to 6.54 million, the weakest reading since September 2020. Severe winter weather, including heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures across much of the country, temporarily displaced some workers. Economists continue to describe the current environment as “low hire, low fire” despite a sharp jump in Initial Jobless Claims. This report increased 22,000 to 231,000. However, this increase does not indicate a fundamental shift in labor market conditions. The four week moving average of claims, a more stable gauge that smooths week to week volatility, rose by 6,000 to 212,250.

The S&P U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 in January, its fastest pace since May 2022. Manufacturers reported strong output gains, but new business growth remained weak, creating a gap that suggests production may soften in the coming months unless demand improves.

All major markets experienced volatility during the first week of February. Gold and silver extended their early week sell offs before recovering later in the week. The cryptocurrency market remained under significant pressure, with total liquidations exceeding $1.45 billion over a 24-hour period, marking the fourth largest single day liquidation total in the last three months. The speculative commodity has fallen 44% from its 52 week high of 126,279. Despite the choppy conditions, the S&P 500 ended the week nearly unchanged at 6,932, while the Nasdaq closed lower at 23,031.

Next week’s key economic releases include Retail Sales, the Employment Report and Consumer Price Index.