Weekly Market Commentary March 9th to March 13th 2026

The tension in the Middle East continued to be the driver of volatility in the markets this week, as the Trump administration delivered mixed messages about the length and breadth of the conflict. Energy prices remain elevated, even as global strategic reserves were tapped, due to the closed Strait of Hormuz and the threat of bombs disrupting oil refining and transportation in the region. In the economy, it was a rare instance where both consumer prices and personal consumption were released during the same week. The CPI for February met expectations and matched January’s at 2.40%. The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also matched last month’s and expectations, coming in at 2.50%. Later in the week, the PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures, index for January came in slightly less than both expectations and the prior month at 2.80%. However, after stripping out food and energy, the Core PCE index was slightly hotter at 3.10%. The Fed relies on PCE data as its main inflation data-driver when considering changing short-term interest rates. Look for this week’s results to bolster the hawks’ arguments for maintaining rates for the time being.

The other major data release this week was the second cut of Q4-2025 GDP. An already diminished quarter of 1.40% was reduced to 0.70% as the downward revision was attributed to adjustments in consumer and government spending and net exports. This lowers the yearly GDP for 2025 to 2.10%, off from 2024’s 2.80%. Elsewhere in the economy, Existing Home Sales for February came in at +1.7%; and Housing Starts and Building Permits for January came in at +7.2% and -5.5% respectively. Real Estate statistics can be especially volatile during winter months.

As mentioned earlier, market volatility continued with all major indices falling for the second straight week. The S&P 500 fell 1.6% to 6,632; the Dow Jones Industrials dropped 2.0% to 46,558; and the NASDAQ lost 1.3% closing at 22,105. Bond yields rose across the curve as inflation fears continued with the 10-Year U.S. Treasury closing at 4.29%.

Next week’s lighter schedule includes the Producer Price Index (PPI) for February, New and Pending Home Sales, and the Fed’s short-term interest rate decision, which is likely to be unchanged.