Weekly Market Commentary February 23rd to February 27th 2026

The week began on unstable footing following lower than expected fourth quarter GDP results and the Supreme Court’s decision striking down the administration’s tariff measures. Markets remained volatile through Friday, with equities declining and yields falling as concerns about potential stagflation intensified in response to hotter than anticipated inflation data.

The first notable economic release of the week provided insight into labor market conditions via the ADP weekly employment report. For the four weeks ending February 7, private employers added an average of 12,750 jobs per week, marking the fourth consecutive week of increasing job gains. Despite this positive momentum, hiring growth continues to track below historical norms.

Consumer confidence improved more than forecast in February after softening in January. Although four of the index’s five components strengthened during the month, overall confidence remains well below the recent four year high of 112.8 recorded in November 2024.
Rounding out the week, Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data came in mixed, with headline PPI exceeding expectations while core PPI aligned with estimates. Most PPI components that feed into the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge) either moderated or remained unchanged from January, contributing to modest declines in yields across the curve.

Equity markets experienced a volatile week, beginning with losses, recovering midweek, and ultimately finishing lower on Friday with the S&P 500 closing down slightly by 0.50% at 6,878. Treasury yields moved lower, with the 2 Year decreasing 9 basis points to 3.39% and the lowest level since July of 2022, while the 10 Year decreased 12 basis points to 3.96% and the lowest level since October of last year.

Looking ahead, next week will bring February’s non-farm payrolls report as well as updated ISM services and manufacturing data.