Weekly Market Commentary November 24th to November 28th 2025

Retail sales for the month of September increased 0.2%, below expectations and below August’s 0.6% increase. The report shows that consumers pulled back after a strong back-to-school shopping season, but spending was still strong in food services. The bigger trend shows a slowdown in consumer spending which is likely aided by a dip in consumer confidence amidst concerns over the labor market and the economy. With the holiday season upon us, it will be interesting to see if this trend reverses.

We also received the September reading of the Producer Price Index (PPI) which showed a 0.3% increase in producer prices. This increase was mainly driven by higher food and energy costs as PPI ex Food and Energy, also known as Core PPI, only increased 0.1% for the month. Since the Fed mainly focuses on Core PPI, the report is encouraging and supports the potential for a rate cut in December.

The equity markets roared higher this week after pulling back the prior three weeks. The S&P 500 closed 3.7% higher to 6,849, the Nasdaq 4.9% higher to 23,366, and the Dow Jones Industrials 3.2% higher to 47,716. U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly on the week, with the 10-Year Treasury falling 4bps to 4.02% and the 2-Year closing flat at 3.50%.

Next week we will get data on both Manufacturing and Services, as well as Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE.)