Weekly Market Commentary September 22nd to September 26th 2025
It was another active week with several important and highly anticipated economic data releases.
The first noteworthy release was the S&P Global US PMI Composite Index, which declined from 54.5 to 53.9 in September. Despite the slower rate of growth for a second successive month, the reading indicates that the third quarter has seen the strongest average monthly expansion since the fourth quarter of 2024.
Next up were New Home Sales in August, which increased by 20.5% and were well-above the estimate and the highest level since January 2022. Sales are now up by 15.4% from a year ago but remain volatile from month to month.
Durable Goods Orders ex-transportation for August was better than expected, increasing by 0.4% above the 0.0% estimate and evidence that business investment is holding up well.
The final estimate for second quarter GDP was revised up considerably to an annualized rate of 3.8% from 3.3%. The increase was driven by consumer spending (70% of GDP) revised up to 2.5%, from 1.6%.
The most anticipated data for the week was Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and came in at forecast. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% MoM and 2.9% YoY. Despite remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, it hasn’t spiked as much as anticipated due to tariff implementation and is likely to keep the Fed in line for future rate cuts.
Equity markets increased to start the week but decreased until a Friday rebound on the heels of the PCE data closing at 6,643, a decline of 0.3% for the week and up 12.9% YTD snapping a streak of three consecutive weekly gains.
U.S. Treasury yields increased slightly from last week, with the 2-Year Treasury yield finishing at 3.64%, and the 10-Year closing at 4.17%.
For this upcoming week, important economic indicators include the Institute of Supply Managers (ISM) Services and Manufacturing indexes as well as the Bureau of Labor Statistics payroll report for September will be released.
