November 25, 2022

Weekly Market Commentary November 21st to November 25th, 2022

Durable Goods Orders in October exceeded consensus expectations. New Orders rose by 1% on a month-over-month basis versus 0.4% anticipated. Core Capital Goods were particularly strong, up 0.7% versus 0.2%. Total shipments, unfilled orders and inventories all increased at a steady pace.

New Home Sales rose to 632k in October following a downward revision to 588k for September. The supply of homes available for sale tightened further to 8.9 months from 9.4 the previous month.

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s November meeting gave a boost to investors looking for a rate hike slowdown. The transcript revealed that “a substantial majority” of Fed officials expect the pace of increases to slow.

The S&P 500 rose by 1.5% in the Thanksgiving holiday-shortened (and abbreviated Friday session) trading week while the Nasdaq Composite was higher by 0.7%. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield closed the week at 3.69%. The inversion of the yield curve moved further into muti-decade extremes with the yield on the 2-Year U.S. Treasure exceeding the 10-Year by 78 basis points.

Key economic releases next week include Nonfarm Payrolls, JOLTS job openings, Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Confidence, and an updated estimate for Q3 GDP.

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